Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Rupee may fall to 65 by December, Sensex expected to surprise on the upside



MUMBAI: The gloom surrounding the Indian economy may deepen in the next three months with the rupee expected to weaken and inflation projected to stay high, an ET poll of top fund managers and brokers shows.

The rupee may possibly touch 65 to the US dollar by December while inflation is expected to stay at elevated levels of 9% (retail) and 6% (wholesale). The US Federal Reserve could start slowing its bond purchases by the end of the year, a majority of participants said, and not September as is widely believed.

The Sensex is expected to hold its current position and may even surprise on the upside, the poll reveals.

Nearly 45% of the fund managers and brokers expect the rupee to trade between 62 and 65 to the dollar this year while 33% said it will be range-bound between 60 and 62.

Sensex seen at 18,000-19,000

The rupee, Asia's worst-performing currency so far this year, ended Monday down more than 2% to 63.13 to the dollar. It has fallen 9.83% since June.

About 40% of the participants said the Sensex will trade at between 18,000 points and 19,000 points by December while 20% were optimistic about the index crossing 20,000. The Sensex closed Monday down 1.56%.

It has fallen 7.35% since June this year. "The Indian economy is under pressure, not only due to fears of flight of capital ahead of the US Fed's expected move of QE tapering, but also due to the negative domestic economic fundamentals that are driving the rupee weaker," said Dinesh Thakkar, CMD of Angel Broking.

Fifteen fund managers and brokers participated in the poll conducted over telephone on Monday.

"The government measures so far to stabilise the currency are clearly not working. Tightening the liquidity has affected India Inc in terms of higher interest costs and lower growth," said Andrew Holland, CEO, Ambit Capital. "Countries with high current account deficits have got impacted."

All participants said the government needs to do more on the policy front while a majority believe that elections will be held as per schedule. Two-thirds of the participants suggested that investors should buy in a staggered manner while the rest feel they should wait for a few more weeks for more corrections. Nearly 90% of the participants said they had lost faith in the UPA government.
resource:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/market-news/rupee-may-fall-to-65-by-december-sensex-expected-to-surprise-on-the-upside-et-poll/articleshow/21924010.cms

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Action against ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis on basis of RBI report: Finmin

The government today said action would be taken against ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank on the basis of an RBI audit report which has detected certain "aberrations", a month after the private banks were accused of money laundering by an online news portal.
"An audit report has come and now the banks would probably be asked for their versions...We don't need to recommend anything; we discussed the issue and everybody will do whatever one is supposed to do after that. The RBI would be doing what they are required to do," Banking Secretary Rajiv Takru told reporters outside the Mint Road office of RBI.
"I think it would be safe to say that there are actionable points where RBI would need to take some action and consequently government would also need to address them," he said.
Last week, Reserve Bank Deputy Governor H R Khan had said the central bank is initiating action against these banks.
"Actions are on the way. Scrutiny has been done, actions is being taken both in respect of systemic level and at the individual banks," he had said.
"Actions are being initiated both at the system level and the individual bank level," he had said.
The banking secretary said that he has received RBI's interim audit report on the allegations levelled in the sting operation by news portal Cobrapost.
However, Takru said he was not at the RBI to recommend specific actions in the regard.
The country's three largest private banks -- ICICI bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank -- were last month accused by Cobrapost of indulging in money laundering activities.
Takru said RBI audit report has found certain "aberrations" at ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank.
"There is no risk of systemic failure. There are certain aberrations which we have discovered in the audit report.
resource:http://www.indianexpress.com/news/action-against-icici-bank-hdfc-bank-axis-on-basis-of-rbi-report-finmin/1104440/

Monday, December 31, 2012

The Marketing Relevance Imperative

NIGEL: You're on ten on your guitar...where can you go from there? Where?
MARTY: I don't know....
NIGEL: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is if we need that extra...push over the cliff...you know what we do?
MARTY: Put it up to eleven.
NIGEL: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.
-Conversation between filmmaker Marty DiBergi and guitarist Nigel Tufnel, This Is Spinal Tap
In study after study, consumers have stressed that, regardless of the channel, they’d rather not see ads. 
   - A 2004 study by Forrester found that when people watch pre-recorded television shows, they skip an average of 92 percent of the commercials
   - Most Internet users block pop-up ads, screen for adware, and safeguard against spam.
Confronting an ad-averse audience, how have major advertisers and ad agencies responded?  With more unwelcome, and in some cases underhanded, tactics – pandering ads, manipulative word-of-mouth campaigns, contracts that require a publisher to pull their ads if the publication prints a negative editorial about them... 
As marketers, we’re all in the same boat: how do you get heard above the din? Where do you go, what do you do, when the volume’s already at 10? Well, if you have the clout – and believe “He who succeeds shouts the loudest” – you:  
   - Run something shocking at a moment of maximum exposure
   - Try to control (i.e., threaten) the presumably impartial media
   - Claim it’s in all the service of branding
One naturally wonders: “This is how you gain trust?” These advertisers and agencies – what we’ll call legacy marketers – are resorting to tactics that not only ooze desperation but are ethically suspect.
Let’s give legacy marketers their due. They’re struggling to survive as media budgets get butchered. John Wanamaker’s oft-quoted adage about 50 percent of advertising being wasted pales in comparison to what they’re facing.
A recent study found that most of these advertisers don’t measure the impact of their television media budget; instead, they relegate it to a black box called “branding.” CEOs and CFOs aren’t fooled – to them, it’s a rationalization for inadequate measurement (branding as a “get out of jail free” card).
To add to the irony, these marketers aren’t fooling – let alone engaging – the public.
You can spend millions on monologues that swamp your target market, only to be muted by a single consumer voice on the Net. Many marketers fail to realize that they aren’t moving closer to dialoguing with consumers or learning how to thrive in a world where consumers are savvy and empowered, where information can be shared in seconds.
Just visit Amazon.com. Who do you think the consumer’s going to believe? The carefully selected expert on the dust jacket or opinions posted by peers?  Google away – third-party, consumer, and consumer group reviews are a breeze to find.
When brand messages are Tivo’ed, pop-up ads and irrelevant email marketing is tuned out, how do you justify your legacy budget? How does a marketer become more relevant?
Well, first, you don’t make a spectacle of yourself. The kid throwing a tantrum in the grocery store knows this is a way to garner attention. The problem is, it isn’t positive attention. The more shrill advertisers and agencies become, the more they employ aggressive/intrusive/obnoxious techniques, the more they distance consumers.
Under a constant onslaught of advertising, consumers have adapted, evolved. In order to process information, they’ve learned to be more vigilant, more adept in tuning out predatory messages. In short, consumers see a shark fin and steer clear. They have unprecedented access to information and are less likely to swallow what they hear from marketers. 
But marketers can take heart. Consumers and business-to-business targets have shown they will listen – and be receptive – to a truly relevant message delivered at the right place and time.

It's a simple, but true statement, that it's time to really get to know who you're talking to. Stop messaging that screams “Notice me”; choose messaging that means something to your targets. Start connecting with them.
Allocating media budgets based more on old habits and silos than information is part of the problem.
As the internet becomes an increasingly popular media choice and televisions soon get IP addresses, the potential and expectations for marketing relevancy will only increase. . 
There are marketing innovators to look to as models who don’t treat consumers like a cage of white mice.
Google's approach to advertising is an excellent  example. Google methodically creates systems based on relevance. Google knows that, in an age where consumers and business buyers have information so readily at hand, compelling marketing is pertinent marketing. Through being relevant to users searches, page editorial content or personal email content.
Few media outlets and brands have the trust to scan a user’s email for keywords and phrases and deliver back related advertising, but Google does. It speaks louder than words that consumers allow Google to look at their personal emails in order to get more relevant advertising. It is a testimony to that the fact that targets will listen if marketers will only take the time to be relevant.
Few marketers have made strides towards relevancy as assertively as Amazon.com and, to date, it has paid off dearly.
Marketing relevancy takes a lot more effort, but the rewards are in the results. 
Resource : http://marketingtoday.com/marketing/0905/relevant_marketing.htm 

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